Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Portland 2024

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Kissel

5th • 10-3-0

69%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.7

Surp

5.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dion Orcutt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.17
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.34
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.49
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.55
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.70
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.84
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Arthur Mills

23rd • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.8

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Nichols (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Majin Bae (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Avery Smith (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jordan Long (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Philip Parker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.27
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.65
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Angel Fernandez

42nd • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Meyers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Corwin Benton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs sean Burke (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Micheal Thompson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.62
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Jeremiah Justice

65th • 6-6-0

58%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Robinson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nate Stratton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.59
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

William Bradshaw

67th • 6-6-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

6.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Meyers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Sitton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.62
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Evan Silverman

dropped • 5-5-0

90%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.74
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Antonio Otero

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Newton Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle James (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.79
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Catherine Levine

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Van Order (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kieth Seith (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Archer Taylor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Rolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.57
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

John Milner

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Schmidt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Chambers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kenneth Justin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.57
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Scott Weaville

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Montana Krasnov (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Spicer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kieth Seith (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.79
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Angus Mathieson

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Newton Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Nichols (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emery Powell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.01
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Phillip Stephenson

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bradley Shockey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Darren Knopes (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Zyrone Powell

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Cox (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs tyler kent (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Jack Filiault

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarrod Whitmore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Woodland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Wellendorf (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Rice (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Justin Irby

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Voghell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.44
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Brandon Matthews

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Briggs (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Elsey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Nicholas Botchis

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Farrell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raj Giri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

RAHKZIN LEO EROLIN

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Sitton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Cory Parker

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Hajarizadeh

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Porter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.27
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Steven Stone

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Porter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raj Giri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Trevor Andrews

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Farrell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Snow

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Joe Swelland

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Jules Clark

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christina Maxwell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Stephen Lawrence

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Thomas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.