Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Portland 2024 - The 50th!

Dorinthea Ironsong

Dorinthea Ironsong

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Hajarizadeh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brody Lewis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

Dash I/O

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Case Finlay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

dropped • 3-2-1

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Case Finlay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Max Parra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs John Milner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Draw	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.48
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Blake Meier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Norah Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.48
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Bravo, Showstopper

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Leblanc (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.