Calling: Portland 2024 - The 50th! - Classic Constructed - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Becker

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Hajarizadeh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Adam Roark

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brody Lewis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Case Finlay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Kenneth Justin

dropped • 3-2-1

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Case Finlay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Max Parra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs John Milner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.25
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Davis Purcell

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Chang (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ryan Barnett

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Blake Meier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Norah Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.25
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Sarath Vega

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Leblanc (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Mark Bradshaw

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.