Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Portland 2024

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Drew Bosco

37th • 8-4-0

33%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

6.0

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Pack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Sitton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Lenaghan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Manu Sankepally (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (4/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.32
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.54
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.84
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.46
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mark Morrison

53rd • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.26
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.44
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.87
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.97
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Alexander Vore

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Freund (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dexter Canright (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.56
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maxwell Taylor

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eli Fucile (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mitchell Woodland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.74
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Xavier Hines

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Soini (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Antonio Otero (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Manu Sankepally (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Anemone Chamlin

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robbie Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Moes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cole Noblitt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Lucas Ng

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Martin Van Order (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nate Stratton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Markus Withakay (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.04
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Naib Mobassir

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Loren (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs aiden anable (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Blake Meier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

John Zapata

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Black (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cary Young (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dean Carr (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nick Tiller (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Steven Leyva

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Johnson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andy Lindstrom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs jordan johnson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.32
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Adam Hamilton-Sutherland

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cole Noblitt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin McWhirter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Snyder (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jayson Galindo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Juan Flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.97
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Thomas Wilson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Axton Amentler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Majin Bae (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

francisco guerrero

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Case Finlay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Stephenson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Ian Scarbrough

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.