Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Calling: Portland 2024 - The

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

William Cavanagh

dropped • 3-2-2

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Snyder (Unknown)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jamen Vedova (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Kyle James (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Black (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Draw	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Draw	✓	0.70	-

Grayson Fountain

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Aurora, Shooting Star

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Groat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Unknown)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chase Reiser (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.