Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 12-2-0
86%
Meta
+4.4
Perf
6.6
Surp
6.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cooper Phipps (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Spencer Horton (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 79:21
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dom Nappa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (12/14 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 12 actual)
Surprise
6.6 total deviation
Difficulty
6.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
33rd • 7-4-0
45%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
5.3
Surp
3.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs jak obrien (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jerry Kaonang (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Max Zeelie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Peng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Daniel Madden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
dropped • 5-5-0
80%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
4.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ed Chan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Trent Verney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jesse McDonald (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs None ()
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Pleiades, Superstar | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | 50% | Win | |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Phawat Chuenchai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Loss vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jason Ly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rhyan Wellwood (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Armin Eminovic (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jy Jenkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Pleiades, Superstar | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Gubbins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cooper Phipps (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mark Phillips (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Madden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ben Trubshaw (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Fanning (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.