Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Brisbane 2026

Arakni, Marionette

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Clark

5th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.04
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.48
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

David Huang

12th • 8-3-0

73%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hamish Dickson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Davy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Declan Bradley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Peng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.32
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.42
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.20
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.64
R10	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Joshua Baines

31st • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Riley Hughes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.13
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.48
R8	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Ta

41st • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josh Rosin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Zhong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None ()

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.14
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.12
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.42
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Gebert

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Tyshing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Drummond (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.12
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.83
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.42
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Ryan McIntyre

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Lam (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Phawat Chuenchai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.83
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Harry Boulton

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Tulloch (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ken Russell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Henry Van Den Broek (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.21
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Isaac Katsakis

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Clarke (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Chong (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Joon Chien Tan

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Smith (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Faron Swingler (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Taylor (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Samuel Smith

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Roger Dorko (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Daniel Fanning

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rhyan Wellwood (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valentine Nguyen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Mifsud (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ken Russell

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhyan Wellwood (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Harry Boulton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.14
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Levi Gott

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Ryen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Schmith (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Peng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jonas Ryen

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Levi Gott (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dom Nappa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jy Jenkins

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Claire Grant (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ed Chan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Phawat Chuenchai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.32
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Sean Dryland

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Whyte (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Clarke (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Tyshing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Trent Verney

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Hu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gavin Wu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Madden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roger Dorko (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.70
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jason Ly

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charlie Thompson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Arron Boyles

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Schmith (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.