Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 8-3-0
55%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
4.6
Surp
4.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Miotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Rosiak (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric Hu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thomas Boorman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 20:80
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Huntsman | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69
Round 3: Win vs James Phillips (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Richard Gillingham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Declan Bradley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Miotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Grace Luckman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Peng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 20:80
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Asquith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Van Daalen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Faron Swingler (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Win vs Ben Clarke (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Levi Gott (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mitchell Burton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Trubshaw (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Ryen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jackson CASANOVA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs James Drummond (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 20:80
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.