Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Brisbane 2026
Fai, Rising Rebellion
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 8-3-0
55%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.6
Surp
4.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lee Mackley (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse McDonald (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74
Round 4: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Win vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Declan Bradley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
22nd • 7-4-0
45%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alister Ling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Phawat Chuenchai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs Sean Dryland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Tom Debney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs David Peng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
28th • 7-4-0
45%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mitchell Burton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lachlan Buchan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74
Round 7: Win vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Round 11: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 25% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
30th • 7-4-0
64%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.6
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ian Zhong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 10: Loss vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 11: Win vs Jesse McDonald (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Win |
37th • 6-5-0
45%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tom Debney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gus Drummond (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Mann (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Spencer Horton (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50
Round 8: Win vs Jesse McDonald (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74
100:0
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brodie Whyte (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 100:0
Round 4: Win vs Mark Phillips (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 25:75
Round 6: Win vs Sean Dryland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 100% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rhys King (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Taine Markley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ken Russell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Round 5: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Sharpe (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Drummond (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.