Puffin, Hightail at Calling: Brisbane 2026
Puffin, Hightail
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 8-3-0
73%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 70:30
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jy Jenkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Knight (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Armin Eminovic (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dom Nappa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Rhys Hopley-Weir (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Phawat Chuenchai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 2: Win vs James Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Henry Van Den Broek (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 70:30
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rowan Duffield (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
Round 4: Loss vs Dom Nappa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Taine Markley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mark Phillips (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hamish Dickson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.