Dash I/O at Calling: Brisbane 2026

Dash I/O

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sam Sutherland

5th • 9-3-0

67%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Harry Boulton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Smith (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Ikhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Benjamin Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.56
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.37
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.85
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Matthew Miotto

20th • 7-4-0

55%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

4.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Rosiak (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Marshall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Marr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.08
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.36
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.25
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.64
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Tristan Sampson

34th • 7-4-0

55%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rowan Duffield (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Dryland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Harry Boulton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toby Wilson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jesse McDonald (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.24
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.31
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.68
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.40
R8	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.01
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.44

Sam Davison

40th • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Boorman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Declan Bradley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.16
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.43
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.24
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.57
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Dom Nappa

45th • 5-6-0

27%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Hamlet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Marshall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

27% (3/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.16
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.41
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.62
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R9	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Louis Shum

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Rosin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Hu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Keegan Walls (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.27
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.29
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Amelia Hulin-Bobart

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Piper Allen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Phillips (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.79
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.80
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Taine Markley

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Zielinski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Charlie Thompson

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs bill huynh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Ly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Phillips (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.77
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Andrew Zielinski

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taine Markley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Anderson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Peng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Caserta (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Christopher Rosiak

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ken Hickey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Miotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.49
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Henry Yang

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Phillips (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jackson CASANOVA

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Asquith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Grace Luckman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Debney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Nicholas Tattersall

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Armin Eminovic (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Hu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Vincent Lam

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valentine Nguyen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Ben Trubshaw

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Van Daalen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Thomson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Sharpe (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Jackson Bulat

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Zeelie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.