Vynnset, Iron Maiden
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 8-3-0
55%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Mann (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Claire Grant (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Simon Cox (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Matthew Miotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
24th • 7-4-0
45%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
5.9
Surp
4.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ian Zhong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Madden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
Round 8: Loss vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Round 11: Loss vs Declan Bradley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
25th • 7-4-0
36%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
5.3
Surp
3.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ben Trubshaw (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tom Dagan (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
36% (4/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jason Ly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Davy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
Round 7: Win vs Roger Dorko (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tom Dagan (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Simon Cox (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Oliver Davy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ben Clarke (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gus Drummond (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None ()
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs jak obrien (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | 50% | Win | |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Gubbins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Pleiades, Superstar | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stepan Sopin ()
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rhys King (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trent Verney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Tattersall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Henry Van Den Broek (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.