Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Brisbane 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Zachary Cauchi

10th • 8-3-0

73%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Mann (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Claire Grant (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon Cox (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nick McGrath (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Miotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.39
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.63
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.75
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.27
R10	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.98
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Jesse McDonald

24th • 7-4-0

73%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Zhong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Madden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tristan Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Declan Bradley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.06
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.06
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.40
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.88
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.90
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Anthony O’Hara

25th • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Trubshaw (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Dagan (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.20
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.26
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.30
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Henry De Malmanche

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Ly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Davy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Roger Dorko (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.47

Owen Young

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Crane (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tom Dagan (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.14
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Leroy Martin-McEwen

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simon Cox (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Oliver Davy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Crane

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Clarke (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gus Drummond (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None ()

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs jak obrien (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Marko Zutic

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Gubbins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leroy Martin-McEwen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

Connor Knight

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stepan Sopin ()

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Ikhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhys King (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emil Tan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Eric Hu

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trent Verney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Tattersall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.86
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Michael Glover

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Van Den Broek (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.