Calling: Brisbane 2026 - Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster (CC)

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Spencer Horton

dropped • 3-4-0

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nik Malev (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Woo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alessandro Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81

10:90

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.24
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.95
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.73
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Rhyan Wellwood

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rhys McMillan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Fanning (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ken Russell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Arthur Kindl

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 15:85

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trent Verney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ed Chan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.