Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Brisbane 2026

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sarah Nicholas

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Geoff Wong (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Chong (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Graham-Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Roger Dorko (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Faron Swingler

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhys King (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Claire Grant (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zac Whyte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Ed Chan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Madden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Gillingham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jy Jenkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.