Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Calling: Brisbane 2026

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Patrick Watt

dropped • 4-2-1

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Taylor (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Madeline Southwood (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Zhong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Daniel Schmith

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Woo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Levi Gott (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arron Boyles (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Hamlet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.95
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Josh Rosin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Ta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ken Hickey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.