Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
19 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-1-0
70%
Meta
+3.6
Perf
4.7
Surp
5.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bill Stevenson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Callum Goddard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chris Watts (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
3rd • 8-2-0
60%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.8
Surp
4.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Wheatley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Love (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 77:23
Round 4: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
60% (6/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
9th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs George Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 7: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
12th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Parsons (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 80:20
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
14th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Gavin Caldwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
19th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan McVean (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lewis Westerman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Osama MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
24th • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
Round 3: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thomas Kidd (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Owen Cookman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
26th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel McPhail (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ella Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Cameron Hindes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
27th • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Owen Cookman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Gavin Caldwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
34th • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tommy Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Watts (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
41st • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
43rd • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Erik Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
Round 4: Loss vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
50th • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Berry (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul Wilde (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Duncan Macbeth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-1
83%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Catling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabor Kovacs (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Iain Adair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Draw |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cameron Hindes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Watt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Henderson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
Round 2: Loss vs Gavin Caldwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lewis Westerman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Catling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel McPhail (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
Round 4: Loss vs Duncan Macbeth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Canning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Robert Catling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.