Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Milosz Sankowski

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Ravenshear (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.69
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Wheatley

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephen McKeever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Charlie French

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Henderson

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Berry (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.