Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Milosz Sankowski

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Ravenshear (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.52
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nathan Wheatley

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephen McKeever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.28
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Charlie French

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Ryan Henderson

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Berry (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.