Valda, Seismic Impact at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Valda, Seismic Impact
3 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
30th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
Round 2: Win vs Stuart Ravenshear (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Spencer Lewis (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
Round 7: Win vs Thomas McCudden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
36th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Watt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Milosz Sankowski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Liam Canning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
52nd • 3-4-1
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Henderson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Owen Cookman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Chris Morgan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Thomas McCudden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Draw |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.