Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Riptide, Lurker of the Deep (CC)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Natasha Collins

57th • 3-4-1

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Smith (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Wheatley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlie French (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nate Wood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.99
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-

Chris Morgan

dropped • 2-4-1

71%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 14:86

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Christopher O'Toole (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sidney Theaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel McPhail (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ella Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joel Rencen

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.