Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
37th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
59th • 2-6-0
75%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jack Green (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Scott Morris (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 73:27
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Westerman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs None ()
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | 50% | Win | |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Iain Adair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 73:27
Round 4: Win vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Henderson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Spencer Fagan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Callum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.