Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gavin Caldwell

37th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.25
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Nate Wood

59th • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Green (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Scott Morris (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Westerman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None ()

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Andrew Smith

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Iain Adair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.57
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.48

Alex Berry

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Henderson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Paul Wilde

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Fagan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.04
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Kiran Lee

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Callum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.