Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam Harbinson

35th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Duncan Macbeth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aidan Clark

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Erik Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.24
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.18
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Scott Morris

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nate Wood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.