Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Scott Morris (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Kidd (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
22nd • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Morgan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Tommy Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Canning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Stuart Clark (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
28th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jack Green (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
39th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Iain Brown (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Round 3: Win vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs Thomas McCudden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sidney Theaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
40th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Watt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas McCudden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Eddy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Lewis (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Porter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher O'Toole (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.