Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025

Dash I/O

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

James Earle

55th • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nate Wood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

90:10

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 88:12

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.16
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Callum Goddard

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Westerman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.62
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Kacper Sobieszczuk

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ross Stewart (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Taylor (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Hyman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Marco Casadio

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None ()

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Hyman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Eric Edmond

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Eddy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Richard Hughes

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Watt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabor Kovacs (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.