Kassai of the Golden Sand at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Antonis Kazouris

13th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas McCudden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.19
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.16
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Finn Baird

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan McVean (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Stephen McKeever

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Love (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Wheatley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.