Jarl Vetreiði at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
54th • 3-3-2
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Cameron Hindes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gabor Kovacs (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Christopher O'Toole (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Draw |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Iain Adair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stuart Clark (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Kidd (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Richard Hughes (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cameron Hindes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Win vs Ian Porter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Loss vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Spencer Fagan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-1
60%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Paul Wilde (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Erik Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher O'Toole (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Draw |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.