Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Christopher O'Toole (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Owen Cookman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
49th • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Taylor (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs George Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Love (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Tunstall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Christopher O'Toole (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bill Stevenson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Morgan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joseph Taylor (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sidney Theaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chris Watts (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Eddy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Morgan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.