Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Arakni, Marionette
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-2-0
78%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen McKeever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gavin Caldwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
5th • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.6
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 79:21
Round 2: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Liam Canning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
16th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Watt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 79:21
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
95:5
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 95% | Win |
45th • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
4.2
Surp
2.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wallace Pate (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Tunstall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas McCudden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charlie French (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gabor Kovacs (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Callum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
95:5
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 79:21
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 95% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charlie French (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
Round 2: Loss vs Milosz Sankowski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gabor Kovacs (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Callum Goddard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Roberts Cukermanis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nate Wood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
Round 5: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs August StJude (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Loss vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Morgan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Stuart Clark (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs None ()
Round 4: Loss vs Sidney Theaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | 50% | Win | |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Iain Adair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Callum Goddard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.