Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro (CC)

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

August StJude

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ella Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 8:92

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charlie French (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 8:92

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Iain Brown

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erik Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Kidd (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Tunstall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alfie Thomasson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Berry (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.