Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
29th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Josh Clark (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs Callum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gavin Caldwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tommy Young (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
48th • 4-3-1
88%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Chris Morgan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan McVean (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fraser Wallace (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Spencer Fagan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mateusz Matyasik (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Stuart Clark (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Draw |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
51st • 3-4-1
62%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Duncan Macbeth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61
Round 5: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 6: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Massimo Castelli (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Draw |
dropped • 1-2-1
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Brodie Smith (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 64:36
Round 2: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Draw |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Milosz Sankowski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.