Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jas Tin Lim

3rd • 7-3-0

60%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Hughes (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ross Stewart (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wallace Pate (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.51
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.22
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.60
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Ian Porter

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Canning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fraser Wallace (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.16
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.01
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Kyle Mullings

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs George Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan McVean (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Erik Taylor

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Iain Brown (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Spencer Fagan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aidan Clark (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.