Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Simon MacDonald

10th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natasha Collins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josh Byram (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Liam Canning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chris Watts (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.81
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Pontus Angerfors

11th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Morris (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Green (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Watt (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Teague (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.72
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.50
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Aaron Taylor

44th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Thomson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Tunstall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stuart Clark (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sidney Theaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Iain Adair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Iain Adair

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cameron Hindes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Osama MacDonald

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ross Stewart (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Daniel Mckinlay

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Catling (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.34
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Andrew Irvine

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wallace Pate (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabor Kovacs (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.