Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Finlay Shepherd

21st • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Milosz Sankowski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Watts (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

5:95

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

Denis Gergov

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Osama MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

5:95

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Cookman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 7:93

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Spencer Lewis

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fraser Wallace (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.