Battle Hardened: Edinburgh 2025 - Marlynn, Treasure Hunter (CC)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Finlay Shepherd

21st • 5-3-0

12%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Atkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Kelly (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Milosz Sankowski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Carr (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Watts (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Denis Gergov

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Osama MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Cookman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.44
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Spencer Lewis

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fraser Wallace (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

5:95

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 6:94

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.