Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Hamburg 2026

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

70 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

2nd • 13-3-0

69%

Meta

+4.8

Perf

7.6

Surp

6.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nastassja Baum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philipp Wasielewski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Joergensen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paul Moerler (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Roger Braun (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

69% (11/16 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.8 Wins (8.2 expected, 13 actual)

Surprise

7.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.02
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.24
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.46
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R11	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.59
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R14	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.94
R16	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Andrea Mengucci

3rd • 11-4-0

93%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.5

Surp

4.5

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Wagner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Hagel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rik Godschalk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Léo Baty (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alwart Nijveld (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

93% (14/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (8.7 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.01
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.21
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.36
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.39
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R11	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.87
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Enes Findik

3rd • 11-4-0

80%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henrik Ehlers (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcel Kügler (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johannes Janovsky (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mateusz Pachciarz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (12/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (8.7 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.09
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.07
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.24
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.28
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R15	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tommaso Viscido

5th • 12-2-0

86%

Meta

+4.1

Perf

6.1

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Greenwood (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Devos (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Buhot (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.08
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.27
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.31
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.48
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip van Donselaar

5th • 11-3-0

79%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

7.0

Surp

5.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Hentrop (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Braben (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rene Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Linh Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

7.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.05
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.19
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.46
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.86
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.82
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Holík

11th • 10-3-0

85%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kin Yen Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Milosz Sankowski (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thien Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.08
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.18
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.82
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.20
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R12	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Guillem Las Heras

17th • 10-3-0

92%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.2

Surp

5.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ferdinand Wenke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Léo Baty (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Aditya Rajan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Chang Li (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.16
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.28
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.80
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.62
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Simon Nielsen

21st • 9-4-0

85%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roger Braun (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tilemachos Tsontakis (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Léo Baty (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Finn Labe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aditya Rajan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Adam Urban (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.06
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.27
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.20
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.27
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.32
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R11	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chang Li

28th • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marko Kresse (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Denis Poulin Lacasse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luca Muratori (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.20
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.14
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.08
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.51
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.68
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.44
R12	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.23
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Linh Tran

29th • 9-4-0

85%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakob Immer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs shao qi Chen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thilo Focke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.14
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.12
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.27
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.47
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.16
R9	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.51
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Asger Thomsen Brem

31st • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcel Rosenfeld (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Corey Cruickshank (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fabian Falk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Niklas Astner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Manos Apostolakis (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.90
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Rik Godschalk

36th • 9-4-0

85%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Werk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thorben Kahnert (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Henrik Moilanen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.09
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.31
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.21
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Mirko Dolce

50th • 8-5-0

85%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Duro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lukas Proske (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aditya Rajan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Philipp Kuschel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alwart Nijveld (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.17
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.36
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.48
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Alessio Bouko

51st • 8-5-0

77%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

6.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Celine Yasseri (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eleonora Turowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Duc Minh Tran (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alwart Nijveld (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Finn Labe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Benjamin Buhot (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Linh Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.29
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.12
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.48
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.24
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.31
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.81
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Liam Canning

57th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Krenzke (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kiran Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Towsey (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rene Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rik Godschalk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.06
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.42
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.51
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Thomas Steinle

59th • 8-5-0

85%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Siem Fincken (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Hentrop (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thien Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Chang Li (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Finn Labe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.18
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.06
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.51
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.39
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.81
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Jan Kučera

62nd • 7-6-0

85%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

5.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrei Leucuta (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Toby Beckham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Johannes Janovsky (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Denis Poulin Lacasse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Samed Demir (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Finn Labe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mateusz Pachciarz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (7.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.08
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.28
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.39
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.40
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Vlad Ciobotea

dropped • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mathew Davies (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gerret Brunke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kiran Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lennart Paga (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.16
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R9	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Feng

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Szymon Biesiekierski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Claveau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonas Hentrop (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Marcisz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.11
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Daniel Sauer

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mara Graß (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Marcisz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Donovan van Beek

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rene Gropp (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Held (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacques Carlson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Flavio Dollani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.13

Gary White

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joakim Fugelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jan Kučera (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs shao qi Chen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Jean Luka Zorko

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Henderson (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.21
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Kilian Schellekens

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fabian Klucke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thien Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tam Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.32
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Klas Bergholtz

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucien Whitman (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandru Ungureanu (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Julia Happel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joakim Fugelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.03
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.07
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.13
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Laurens Overgaauw

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas van Dijk (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Hiller (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Arthur Nijssen (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Max Dieckmann

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ismael Boulbaz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Duc Minh Tran (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kirill Antropov (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.25
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.56
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.30
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hennrik Wittke (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Danny Halstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Albrecht (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Crone (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gerret Brunke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Paul Moerler

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marc Bluhm (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Schall (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Victor Lenoble (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

Sammy Weckx

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Felix Lutzke (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Denis Poulin Lacasse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.53
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Samuel Braben

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Schneegans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Niklas Astner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R5	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Savinien Castel

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heidorn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tino Mille

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Adler (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mawe-Rick Kaiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thilo Focke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Toby Beckham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alwart Nijveld (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.02
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.32
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Aaron Beernaert

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cédric De smet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Burghoff (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joakim Fugelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Erik Schroedter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dan Moldovan

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sayan Srour (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clara Labe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Smith (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rico Angermeier (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Goele Nuyts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.77
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Declan Macewan

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc-Andre Richter (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthias Hagel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Tobias Pechnig

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Linus Albat (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcel Rosenfeld (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Milosz Sankowski (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mathis Reteuna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.11
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Erik Schroedter

dropped • 3-4-1

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Schindler (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Celine Yasseri (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacques Carlson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Tommaso Fabbri (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Beernaert (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.66
R7	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yoshio Hamasaki

dropped • 3-4-1

88%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Denis Poulin Lacasse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rene Lorentsen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul Döhrer (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Marko Kresse (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-

Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marc Schuba (Unknown)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yoshio Hamasaki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Schreiber (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Kuhlmann (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alessandro Sgura

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ove Hasselhorst (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mathis Reteuna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

90:10

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Buhot (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.09
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Danny Halstad

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Schneider (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alan Petit (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aditya Rajan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Leonel Samayoa

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fritz Jenicek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joaquim Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alwart Nijveld (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Mert Gezgin

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matti Salmi (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Becker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Moerler (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Declan Macewan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Michael de Kok

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manon Godet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joakim Fugelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Fauth (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

90:10

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christian Sal (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.11
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Michaele Teppa

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mawe-Rick Kaiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Sauer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ismael Boulbaz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Flavio Dollani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tim Sofsky

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rene Specius (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rene Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Łukasz Schok (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tim Bierholz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Sauer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Michel

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zelin Xu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raphael Notz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Max Schmidt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacques Carlson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Michał Biernacki

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Adler (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Towsey (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonas Hentrop (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rik Godschalk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.04
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Markus Heimbeck

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karim Jouni (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Höpfner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Leo Dancette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Alessandro Bracci

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Joergensen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Labe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Dennis Dalinghaus

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maxime Claveau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mathias W (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Emmi Pelkonen

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Bierholz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandru Ungureanu (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Apsalar Johanna Barkemeyer (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.07
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Paul Beese

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Umut Kayan (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Felix Albertsmeier (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Henrik Moilanen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Philipp Kuschel

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nastassja Baum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Robert Crone

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Konrad Niva (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tam Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christoph Korzeniewski (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Urban (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cédric De smet

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mateusz Pachciarz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Shane Steinert (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Diego Rosa (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Beernaert (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Towsey (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.78
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Andreas Kaiser

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Codrin Ion (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jory van de Loo (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Siem Fincken (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Mathew Davies

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Seeland (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yegor Borshch (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Łukasz Schok (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ricardo Manrique (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.59
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Matthias Hagel

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucien Whitman (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Apsalar Johanna Barkemeyer (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.03
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Szymon Biesiekierski

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zelin Xu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lukas Proske (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Felix Mölck

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bilel Manai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 91:9

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.10
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jeremie Pohl

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Niels Debosschere (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mateusz Wamser (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Terborg (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Kink (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Maxime Claveau

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrei Leucuta (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mark Duro

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Moore (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Flemming Ketteler (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Laura Nielsen

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Beernaert (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bilel Manai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Alexander Hempelmann

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Konstantinos Tsolakakis

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thien Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manon Godet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zelin Xu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Nathaniel Payne

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jo Jung (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.