Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Hamburg 2026 — FaB-Results

Fai, Rising Rebellion

Fai, Rising Rebellion

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

66th • 6-7-0

69%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

6.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

Pleiades, Superstar

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Corey Cruickshank (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Dash I/O

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Petit (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Henrik Moilanen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thorben Kahnert (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aditya Rajan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.18
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Benjamin Brüssau

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Arakni, Huntsman

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Diego Rosa (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs david deom (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Dash I/O

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Dorinthea Ironsong

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Manos Apostolakis (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Greenwood (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Will Melyn (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 69:31

Arakni, Huntsman

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samed Demir (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Vioni (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Dash I/O

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ramon Bernigau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yoshio Hamasaki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Manon Godet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.59
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.06
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diana Triebnig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Linh Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Valin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kristian Faber (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Gadalla (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Schreiber (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Boris Melnykov (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juho Hälli (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ростислав Морванюк (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christoph Korzeniewski (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Brockhage (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Puffin, Hightail

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 45:55

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mathias Schmidt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yoshio Hamasaki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joaquim Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Benedikt Sylvester

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nikolaus Schnelle (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andi Papenfuß (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Duro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Felix Mölck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Katsu, the Wanderer

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tam Nguyen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robson Dechamps

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Kassai of the Golden Sand

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Gadalla (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Smith (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Leonel Samayoa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.86
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vincent Weinzierl

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rene Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Petit (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Pelka (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thore Ladicke (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Leonel Samayoa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Bidinger Mikael

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benoit Diard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Arakni, Huntsman

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Sauer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mario Trosien (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Puffin, Hightail

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Felix Albertsmeier (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.