Dash I/O at Calling: Hamburg 2026

Dash I/O

25 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Preyer

1st • 14-2-0

88%

Meta

+4.9

Perf

6.7

Surp

6.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Moore (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 68:32

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ростислав Морванюк (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mattis Kollek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Linh Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Adam Urban (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (14/16 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.9 Wins (9.1 expected, 14 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.03
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.07
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.09
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.25
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.19
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.70
R16	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Evan McTernan

27th • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bino Nolting (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nikolaus Schnelle (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marko Kresse (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Szymon Biesiekierski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sayan Srour (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Braben (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joaquim Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.44
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.73
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Fabian Rex

32nd • 9-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pascal Flügel (Unknown)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristian Faber (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 68:32

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gerret Brunke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Callum Young (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luca Muratori (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Philipp Kuschel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rik Godschalk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chang Li (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.23
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Samo Planinc

37th • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chang Li (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Niklas Schulte Osthoff (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toby Beckham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Brockhage (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.41
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.24
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.53
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.42
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.89
R13	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Léo Toulouse

42nd • 8-5-0

85%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Schuurmans (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Pechnig (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Frank Pilchowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.04
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.23
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.51
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.16
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Frederik Pedersen

48th • 8-5-0

69%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Manon Godet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Chang Li (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Manos Apostolakis (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Finn Labe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Benjamin Buhot (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.15
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.36
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.13
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.25
R13	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lars Seebacher

dropped • 6-5-0

91%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philipp Tumczyk (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikko Salmi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Declan Macewan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joaquim Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.07
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.39
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R5	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.41
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Andrea Migliavacca

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joakim Fugelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thorben Kahnert (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tilemachos Tsontakis (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Niklas Astner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.01
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Marc Teunnissen

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs André Kofmel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Lenoble (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrei Leucuta (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Flavio Dollani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thien Nguyen

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Konstantinos Tsolakakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joris Verhelst (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.06
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Alex Chițu

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fabian Gerber (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Callum Young (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sacha Evrard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.55
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Callum McMurray

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Apsalar Johanna Barkemeyer (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yannick Pfeiffer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kristian Faber (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Philipp Wasielewski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mathias W (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.21
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.42

David Rotter

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antonio Briola (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.18
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.21
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Quest Pittman

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Vollmers (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Igor Wesołowski (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lennart Paga (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Xavier laperrouze (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.53
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Dae-Jin Seon

dropped • 2-6-0

88%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Bauer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Werner Maier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Derek Patterson (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Erwin Becker (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joakim Fugelli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ramon Bernigau

dropped • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Celine Yasseri (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ismael Boulbaz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Diego Rosa (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paul Döhrer (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Violet FaB (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.88
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Patrick Hauser

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Young (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luce Guidi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Callum McMurray (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Kacper Sobieszczuk

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Rakowski (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thien Nguyen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Denis Poulin Lacasse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonas Schneider (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Noah Devos

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luce Guidi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philipp Tumczyk (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andi Papenfuß (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.29
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Felix Ebert

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vitali Sperling (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Bierholz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Patrick Kaiser

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Hiller (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Kuhlmann (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.66
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Romain Lambert

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luca Muratori (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Pelka (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Sal (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arnold Baars (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Yannick Pfeiffer

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marko Kresse (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Callum McMurray (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Keown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Kuhlmann (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Henrik Ehlers

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samed Demir (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Simon Wolf

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sacha Evrard (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.