Aurora, Legacy of Tempest at Calling: Hamburg 2026

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacques Carlson

dropped • 5-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

5.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Lazar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Werner Maier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Erik Schroedter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Michel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mateusz Pachciarz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hennrik Wittke (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Schatz (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cédric De smet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Puffin, Hightail

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Linus Albat (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.34
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Finlay Shepherd

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Dash I/O

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mathias Schmidt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daan Heister (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Dash I/O

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ramon Bernigau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Schroedter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs cory macewan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Baker (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonas Hentrop (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

Dash I/O

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Duro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Valda, Seismic Impact

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rene Gropp (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Schindler (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Dorinthea Ironsong

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Sal (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mara Graß (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Henderson (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Vincent Krenzke

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Eliassen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Arakni, Huntsman

0:100

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lennart Paga (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 0:100

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Callum Young (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Violet FaB (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Chirulescu

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julia Happel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Buhot (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Arakni, Huntsman

0:100

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Buhot (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Dash I/O

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Dash I/O

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Callum McMurray (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Schneegans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs shao qi Chen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.36
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marc-Andre Richter

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Hahn (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Rakowski (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Takis Pavlou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Michael Schuurmans

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

Dash I/O

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lasse Saxer (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Adler (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.