Bravo, Flattering Showman at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026

Bravo, Flattering Showman

28 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marcos Rogerio Silva

13th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ronit Patel (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mark Taylor (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Phil Hensley (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Noah Beygelman

14th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mary Stevens (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Owen Young (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Xavier Elizondo (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.61
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Wesley Dong

17th • 8-2-0

90%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Steven Caraher (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jon Cardenas (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ronald Gonzalez (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.61
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R10	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Jacob Pacheco

26th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wayne Lee (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Terrence Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luke Snyder (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.53
R8	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.61
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.25
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Morgan Jensen

45th • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Salvador Morales (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Elaine Cao (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mark Taylor (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.53
R10	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mariusz Korlacki

61st • 4-5-1

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jeremie Maurina (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Owen Keane (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Reid (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Hunter Apple (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (5.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Shaker

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Wagoner (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Libman (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Garret Newbill (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kesean Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marit Franks (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Zach Ickes (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Suryan Bhatia

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Carter Barton (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Rivera (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Becker (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Rawlings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chuck Ford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Deven Nilsson

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ronald Gonzalez (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ross Ellingworth (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Sarraf (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.31
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.57
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Diana Green

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Iannacone (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Vinson (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.31
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Chuck Ford

dropped • 3-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Brown (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Daniel Hadley (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Astling (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Stephen Cookus (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mark Morrison

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Sov (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Lara (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Julio Adame (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mitch Miller (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Carlo Cuenca (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Sean Cowan

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Min Kang (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Carlo Cuenca (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Phil Hensley (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Charlie Manning (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Branden Adams (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Carlo Cuenca

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominic Perez (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mike Williams (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Xiu Meng Yip

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Jones (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Daniel Hadley

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Erik Taylor (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Chuck Ford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Cisneros

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Wells (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Jacob Carden

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kenjy Jap (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Anthony Cicchinelli

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Carter Barton (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Chris Donati

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mac Caldwell (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Tyruss Sennett

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Chu (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andy Bonny (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jacob Wells

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zach Ickes (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick R (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Cisneros (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Phan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Salvador Morales

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Leavitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Dominic Perez

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Carlo Cuenca (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Houder

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Keane (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Cody Branom

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Taylor (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Kevin Chang

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.