Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026 - Lexi (SAGE)

Lexi

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony Pham

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matt Muus (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Katie O'Neil (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Taotao Chu (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R7	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Mark Taylor

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ian Eshelman (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Rivera (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kaden Grace (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Natasha Yocum

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs John Milner (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Branden Adams

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jessica Jensen (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Kim (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Blaine Pascu

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Elizondo (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs laureline kammeyer (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Irby

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bruce Xu (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Vinicius Timm Toniazzo

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Branden Adams (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Smith

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Kim (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Scott Kennedy

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Holly Stowe (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Davis Owen (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua White

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.