Dromai at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026

Dromai

32 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicholas Tran

16th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peyton Gage (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Sayer (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

5:95

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Zach Ickes (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R9	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

David Lewis

32nd • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Savinien Castel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andy Bonny (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nick Soini (Florian) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Violet Dold (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Caleb Engen (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Elaine Cao (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anthony Faciane

40th • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eduardo mauricio Gonzalez abrego (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Seth Comstock (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick R (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.20
R8	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Elaine Cao

42nd • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jessica Jensen (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Gamboa (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.21
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Reid

56th • 5-5-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Lara (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

5:95

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David McCartney (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Dorinthea) - Expected: 91:9

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Matt Sullivan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

5:95

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.51
R7	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.11
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R10	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

Ben Platt

58th • 5-5-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Lee (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 91:9

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Carter Barton (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Albert Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Hunter Apple (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.06
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Bird Cabrera

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Warnek (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Terry (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Alexander (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Celina Zhang (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs John Kim (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.65
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.06
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Taotao Chu

dropped • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marco Gomez (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Julio Adame (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick R (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Luke Snyder (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Lee Kimball

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sunny Yang (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Bryce Miller-Booker

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Richards (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs nathan lapham (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Albert Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stephen Cookus (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.14
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Celina Zhang

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Klundt (Florian) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Sarraf (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alvin Kim (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Bollier (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gus Enger

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Sayer (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eli Barila (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nicholas Kreitzburg

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aron Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ryan Vinson

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Murgolo (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: 64:36

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Farrell (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Galleran

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Drew Santos (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Smith (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 91:9

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ivan Taranto

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ron Bello (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Davis Owen

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Ortiz (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Scott Kennedy (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marit Franks (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R5	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Ng

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lahoci Franco (Unknown)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jared Au (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Matt Muus

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Terry (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Mitch Miller

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Han Vi (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Katie O'Neil (Dorinthea) - Expected: 91:9

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Kiran Lee

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Rawlings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.43
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Marco Marcelli

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Phan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Violet Dold (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sean Glancy (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Julio Adame (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.72
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Corbin Coyle

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kesean Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Marco Gomez

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matheo Franchot (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Cooper Templeton

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Turcotte (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Kyle Gamboa

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Redington

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

5:95

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

5:95

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (0.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

Jeremiah Hartsock

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Garret Newbill (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Justin Salmon

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Eshelman (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Aaron Negrillo

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Christina Lara

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Andrew Lundeen

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

5:95

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cory Hill (Rhinar) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (0.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.