Florian at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026

Florian

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Darren Knopes

37th • 7-3-0

40%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eli Barila (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jorell Buhay (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Rawlings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Terrence Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.87
R8	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nick Soini

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony DeMeo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ian Eshelman (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.93
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Austin Cannon

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Farrell (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Fai) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brendon Duran (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.00
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Jose Badillo

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aleksandar Bjelic (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Trent Williams (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zach Ickes (Fai) - Expected: 25:75

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Stephen Cookus (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.58
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Barrett Goss

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Hanson (Fai) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peyton Gage (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.67
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Timothy Klundt

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Celina Zhang (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Albert Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aiden Coakley

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Phelipe da Hora (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.