Enigma at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026 — FaB-Results

Enigma

Enigma

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

2nd • 12-1-0

92%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

Kavdaen, Trader of Skins

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sascha Mueller-brown (Kavdaen, Trader of Skins) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Lexi

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Taylor (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Oldhim

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Anthony DeMeo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Oldhim

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Oscilio

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

Briar

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Charlie Manning (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Oldhim

100:0

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Oldhim

100:0

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Oldhim

100:0

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Oldhim

100:0

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Fai

10:90

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (10.2 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kavdaen, Trader of Skins	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.07
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.18
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.41
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R10	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R12	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R13	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

3rd • 10-2-0

92%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

Olympia

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Scott Hazen (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Briar

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Shaffer (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Iyslander

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Evan Bridges (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Dong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Briar

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick R (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Iyslander

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Iyslander

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Oscilio

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

Briar

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Oldhim

100:0

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Fai

10:90

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (8.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.03
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.07
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.08
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R9	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.57
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R11	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.19
R12	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Joseph Schelling

15th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

Lyath Goldmane

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Trevor Valentine (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Dorinthea

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Briar

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Lexi

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Azalea

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andre Thomas (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fai

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Oldhim

100:0

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Dromai

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

Oldhim

100:0

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Win	✗	0.83	2.33
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

36th • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Iyslander

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Holmes (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Oldhim

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Dromai

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Fai

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Hadley (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Dromai

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matt Sullivan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Oscilio

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

Oldhim

100:0

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Luke Snyder (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Oldhim

100:0

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.15
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.31
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Xavier Elizondo

44th • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

Lexi

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Blaine Pascu (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Briar

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Long (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Aurora

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mary Stevens (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gordon Schafer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Briar

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Briar

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aron Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Oscilio

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Briar

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Illuvial Arnett

53rd • 5-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

Lexi

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua White (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Lexi

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Briar

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Briar

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Briar

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Terrence Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Deven Nilsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Florian

R9

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Aurora

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs jaime bessett (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Oscilio

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Dromai

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Riptide

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Seth Comstock (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Lexi

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Branden Adams (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Dromai

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Tran (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Bollier (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Oldhim

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Alexander (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Oscilio

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Fai

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Zach Ickes (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Briar

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Julio Adame (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Briar

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Joseph Iannacone

dropped • 2-4-1

86%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

Azalea

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Shen (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Briar

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Blaze, Firemind

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

Briar

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Jeremy Richards (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Fai

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Klunpaitoon (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Rhinar

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

François Corneau-Tremblay

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

Chane

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Valda Brightaxe

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andy Brown (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Dorinthea

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Dorinthea

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Katie O'Neil (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Fai

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

Dash

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Florian

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Dromai

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Dorinthea

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Briar

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.