Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026 - Rhinar (SAGE)

Rhinar

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joseph Tang

34th • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Leavitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Reid (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mitch Miller (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Carter Barton (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Andre Thomas (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R9	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan McIntyre

52nd • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Terrence Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jeffrey Reynolds (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs William Warnek (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tracy Reeves (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Rivera (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Iannacone (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

100:0

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs John Reid (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.80
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Marit Franks

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jared Au (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Davis Owen (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.63
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Eugene C

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Porter Boroski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kesean Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Astling (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ronald Gonzalez (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Lee (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Seth Comstock (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jared Contaldi

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs joey lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Phan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Donati (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael-Paul Johnson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David McCartney (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Alexander Libman

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hunter Apple (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Trent Williams

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Taylor (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Bryce Erickson

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs laureline kammeyer (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Cory Hill

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

0.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Lundeen (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.