Oscilio at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026

Oscilio

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Foulkes

9th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Danton Lima (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Irby (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Patrick R (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.55
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Brodie Spurlock

10th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joel Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.83
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.33
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Feng

11th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Owen Keane (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Evan Bridges (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Tommaso Viscido

25th • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jorell Buhay (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Caleb Engen (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chris Donati (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Andre Thomas (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.96
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Cu

48th • 6-4-0

90%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Yarberry (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.43
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Albert Irvine

dropped • 5-3-1

89%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Hunter Apple (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Danton Lima (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Klundt (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Zach Ickes (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dante Irvine

dropped • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jazz Larsen (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan McCarthy (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nick Soini (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christian Vitanza

dropped • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gordon Schafer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kesean Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan McCarthy (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Morgan Jensen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

BENJAMIN ALANIZ

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matt Muus (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Milner (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Owen Young (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Tyler Goodridge

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sunny Yang (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Xavier Elizondo (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Henry Gomez

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ross Ellingworth (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aleksandar Bjelic (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Colter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luke Magnuson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Villanueva (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs O'Ryan Hampton (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ronald Gonzalez (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marit Franks (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Deven Nilsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Casey Schaffer

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Becker (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Deven Nilsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Rafael Martin

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ron Bello (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Buttazzoni (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Lee (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ben Yoo

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Klunpaitoon (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

nathan lapham

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Taylor (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Dromai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Young (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Dan Mui

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Murgolo (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.