Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026 - Aurora (SAGE)

Aurora

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher Dietz

33rd • 7-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Powell (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gus Enger (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Seth Comstock (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Erik Taylor (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Porter Boroski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Isaac Brooks

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Violet Dold (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mary Stevens

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Kim (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Elizondo (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taiga Maeda

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs jaime bessett (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.