Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026 - Olympia (SAGE)

Olympia

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mariusz Suchanecki

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair (Unknown)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Erik Taylor (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Porter Boroski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Ulm

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Richards (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jared Au

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marit Franks (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Scott Hazen

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.