Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026

Oldhim

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joel Grizzelle

3rd • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Warnek (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Charlie Manning (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

0:100

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

0:100

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

70:30

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

0:100

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R8	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.16
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R11	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.52
R12	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Tyler Kearney

5th • 8-3-0

73%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Elena Kremen (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Porter Boroski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Evan Bridges (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

0:100

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R11	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Colin Eriksen

19th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

0:100

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Cookus (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Vinson (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Owen Young (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs William Warnek (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jimmy Nguyen

24th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Lanuzo (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Austin Hamilton (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Ng (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gus Enger (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

0:100

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.26
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.29
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Mike Buttazzoni

27th • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Martin (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Anthony DeMeo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.40
R8	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R9	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.21
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Daniel Rutkowski

29th • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Szary (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Terrence Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Porter Boroski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phil Hensley (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Caleb Jansen (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Phil Hensley

30th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gene Nguyen (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bader (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Taylor (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Bollier (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Luke Snyder

51st • 6-3-1

80%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alvin Kim (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Reid (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Taotao Chu (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Holly Stowe (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Porter Boroski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

0:100

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Carter Barton (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.45
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R10	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Corwin Benton

39th • 6-4-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Branden Adams (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (6.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R7	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.17
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Brandon Stolzer

43rd • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Au (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Holly Stowe (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gus Enger (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

0:100

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.90
R8	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Sam Sutherland

46th • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brendon Duran (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bader (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.77
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.21
R10	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Kit Valentine

54th • 5-5-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Ulm (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ronit Patel (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.10
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Logan Duplessis

60th • 4-5-1

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Hadley (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Martin (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Carden (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Lee (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.16
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Hunter Apple

dropped • 3-4-2

89%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Albert Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Libman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jessica Jensen (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Jones (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Mariusz Korlacki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.11
R5	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jacob Kindberg

dropped • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Julius Gante (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Klunpaitoon (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chuck Ford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs O'Ryan Hampton (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hunter Apple (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Winther

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eli Barila (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

O'Ryan Hampton

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maxime Forest (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Owen Young (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Matthew Alexander

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Colter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Phelipe da Hora (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Evan Reid

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David McCartney (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Long (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tristan Schmidt (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Ron Bello

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Martin (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bernard Eng (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Renehan (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Jazz Larsen

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Drew Santos

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Maxime Forest

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs O'Ryan Hampton (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip Luzod

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.