Tuffnut at Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026
Tuffnut
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
55th • 5-5-0
100%
Meta
0.0
Perf
5.0
Surp
2.6
Diff
R1
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R3
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R4
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R5
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Loss vs Matheo Franchot (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R6
R6 SAGE
Round 6: Win vs Seth Comstock (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R7
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Win vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R8
R8 SAGE
Round 8: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R9
R9 SAGE
Round 9: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R10
R10 SAGE
Round 10: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (10/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Blaze, Firemind | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Briar | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Rhinar | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Oldhim | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.