Sunday Showdown: Las Vegas 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fabian Rex

1st • 12-1-0

69%

Meta

+4.8

Perf

5.4

Surp

5.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Salmon (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Willenbring (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Erik Taylor (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Engen (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Jonah Markham (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.85
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.41
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.46
R10	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.19
R13	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.21

Andrew Singleton

5th • 8-3-0

82%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Devin Chen (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bryce Erickson (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Henry Gomez (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Marit Franks (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.18
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.54
R10	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Manuel García Luna Perez

20th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Fryar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Evan Reid (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mike Buttazzoni (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jake Montalbano (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Charlie Manning (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.14
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.43
R10	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Miguel Torres

38th • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Corbin Coyle (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ricardo Villanueva (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Alexander (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs John Reid (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.87
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Zach Ickes

57th • 5-5-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Wells (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jose Badillo (Florian) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Farrell (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Albert Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Matt Sullivan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

John Kim

dropped • 5-5-0

90%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Milner (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mary Stevens (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Lee (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Smith (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Branden Adams (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Szary (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Alex Lee

dropped • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Kim (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aron Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Martin (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R9	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Klunpaitoon

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Yoo (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Cassel (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Iannacone (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matt Sullivan (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.15
R7	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Allen Grube

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andre Thomas (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Vargas (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Daniel Hanson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Zamora (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs joey lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.32
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kathryn Aulabaugh

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Cannon (Florian) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Reynolds (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Libman (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Dailey

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Douglas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Houder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs François Corneau-Tremblay (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kesean Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Aaron Cassel

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Julius Gante (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aron Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Klunpaitoon (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas DeStasio (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Terry

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Hickman (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Jones (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Andrew Clayton

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brendon Duran (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Wayne Lee (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nathan McCarthy

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Unknown)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Devin Chen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Holmes (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Tim Hickman

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Terry (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Holly Stowe (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ross Ellingworth (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Zamora

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Hanson (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Steven Caraher

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.