Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Memphis 2026

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Hamilton

2nd • 12-3-0

67%

Meta

+4.1

Perf

7.0

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (10/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

7.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.06
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.17
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.47
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.15
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.67
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.80
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R14	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.12
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Revera

16th • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Domenic Wilkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Valentino (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hans Schubert (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Bridges (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.05
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.16
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.02
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Yuki Lee Bender

27th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuanji Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Norberto Hernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeremy Chen

31st • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zach Salada (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.04
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.05
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.00
R11	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Andrew Cook

37th • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darryl Couch (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Heger (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Casey Walker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brian Hoffman

46th • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Wray (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Justin Kinison (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R10	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Matthew Renz

47th • 7-5-0

58%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grant Rockefeller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robert Sexton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Emery Powell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Robin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Norberto Hernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Corwin Benton

53rd • 6-6-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

5.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Wright (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Delmont (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Feng (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Lolley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (6.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.06
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.64
R11	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Lorenz

dropped • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Volden (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hans Schubert (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.71
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Viola Sun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Walker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Justin Kinison (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.08
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.63
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Wilborn

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tayler Allen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Farrar (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Norberto Hernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.15
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.18
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Peter Buddensiek

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Franks (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Presley (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Randy Davis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Valentino (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.28

Timothy Scroggs

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tho Bui (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Griesdorn (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.34
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Will Matthews

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Exe (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.09
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Alexander Vore

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Lee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Payten Climer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Connor Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charlie Manning (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs William Garrison (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.72
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tho Bui

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dagan White (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steven Cawyer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jo Burch

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trey Herring (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Wright (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Logan Barnes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Brendon Bloom

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bethany Romans (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Griesdorn (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Payten Climer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Volden (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Kaileb Shipman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Parker Lusk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Stewart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Lucas Wright

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Emery (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Gilley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.21
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.28
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

BEN LADWIG

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Mainhart (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Wilkins (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Blaze Lewis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Campbell

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xavier Emery (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jackson Simons (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Jesse Hudak

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tho Bui (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.