Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Xavier Emery (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
Round 3: Win vs Andy truong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Peyton Elliott (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ajay Bennington (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Diana Green (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Griesdorn (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dakota Galloway (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chase Keeton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
5:95
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul Johnson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 5:95
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Oscar Cotton (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 5% | Loss |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kristifer Flournoy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Lindley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Josiah Avery (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Franklin Brown (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dominic Delmont (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Wright (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Domenic Wilkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jon Barmore (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs charles singleton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kristifer Flournoy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hayden Farrar (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Pinzone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Ford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shane Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Wright (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
100%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Coleman Beam (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Bourner (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Lauren Simpson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Kauffman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.