Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Memphis 2026
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shawn Walker (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 2: Win vs John Booher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Grant Rockefeller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Grace (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Caleb Lolley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Win vs William Spiars (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Charles Castille (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Rybak (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Bethany Romans (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Loss vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Charlie Manning (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Spiars (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Phillip Kauffman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Lolley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Milner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.